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Endogenous growth and lack of recovery from the global crisis

de Ridder M., C.N. Teulings, endogenous growth and lack of recovery from the global crisis, VOX CEPR’s Policy Portal, July 13, 2017

Article

Article on Wall Street Journal

The urban economics of retail

Teulings C.N., I.V. Ossokina, J. Svitak, The Urban economics of retail, CPB Discussion Paper/352, June 1, 2017

Discussion paper

Three solutions to the savings glut, part three

This is the third of a serie of three videos on Low Interest Rates and the Introduction of the Pill.

With special thanks to Koen Aarts.

So it is Trump!

I cannot wait any longer, the closing time of the newspaper is approaching. During my last view at the news sites, I saw Pennsylvania changing colors from gray to red. That is it. Brexit I had expected more or less, this I had not. We are witnessing the end of an era. The country that won the cold war will be led from today by an admirer of Putin, the man who despises democracy and wants to restore the Soviet Union to its former glory. This dramatic outcome makes the question even more acute as to what explains the rise of populism in the Western world. A beginning of an answer can be found six campaigns back, in the victory of Bill Clinton. The analysis at the time was simple. “It’s the economy, stupid”. In a previous column about popularity of Trump and the aversion of free trade, I described the research of David Autor, an MIT economist. Based on the outcomes of congressional elections by district, he shows that the support for the views of either Trump or Sanders can be well explained by the local job losses due to competition from China. This diagnosis led to many reactions: too much of an economist’s view, was the response. However, the important role of economic crises in the electoral survival of incumbent governments is of all times. Two Dutch economists, Arthur Schram en Arthur van Riel, have shown in a splendid paper how the election of Hitler in the thirties was the direct consequences of the Great Depression. They too used regional differences in election outcomes to show that it is precisely in those regions where unemployment had risen the strongest the support for Hitler was greatest. After a crisis, voters wants something new. The decline in unemployment after his coup in 1933, explains why he could remain in power. We know the consequences.
In his wonderful book The Hall of Mirrors from 2015, the economic-historian Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression to the Great Recession after the collapse of Lehman. The Hall of Mirrors in the Palace of Versailles is a reference to the place where the First World War has officially ended and where the Second World War unofficially began. Eichengreen examines in his book how the lessons drawn by the world from the Great Depression have shaped the policy response to the Great Recession. (As an aside: Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Fed, had built his reputation as professor economics with research on the Great Depression. That was useful.) Eichengreen’s concluded that the main mistakes of the thirties were avoided by that experience: banks were saved, the world has not collapsed, and the democratic system has survived. After today, you may wonder whether Eichengreen’s claim has not been premature.

Three solutions to the savings glut, part two

This is the second of a serie of three videos on Low Interest Rates and the Introduction of the Pill.

The last video will be released next Monday 14 November. With special thanks to Koen Aarts.

There is no such thing as a free lunch

Lecture in honour of Johan Witteveen, Erasmus University Rotterdam, October 31, 2016.

Lecture

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Photography: Michelle Muus

Three solutions to the savings glut, part one

This is the first of a serie of three videos on Low Interest Rates and the Introduction of the Pill.

The last video will be released next Monday 14 November. With special thanks to Koen Aarts.

Secular Stagnation, bubbles, fiscal policy, and the introduction of the contraceptive pill

Lu J.Z., C.N. Teulings, Secular stagnation, bubbles, fiscal policy, and the introduction of the contraceptive pill, Column VOX CEPR’s Policy Portal.

Column

Secular stagnation, bubbles, fiscal policy, and the introduction of the pill

Lu J.Z., C.N. Teulings, Secular stagnation, bubbles, fiscal policy, and the introduction of the pill, CEPR Policy insight no. 86

Article

Are bubbles Bad?

Teulings C.N, Are Bubbles Bad? Is a higher debt target for the Euro-zone desirable? Paper for the CES Ifo Conference in Venice, March 2016

Paper

Can demography explain secular stagnation?

Gottfries A., C.N. Teulings (2015), Can demography explain secular stagnation?, VOX, January 30.
Article

Welfare Benefits of Agglomeration and Worker Heterogeneity

Teulings, C.N., I. Ossokina & H. de Groot, Welfare Benefits of Agglomeration and Worker Heterogeneity, Centraal Planbureau, Den Haag.

Publication

Unemployment and house price crises: Lessons for fiscal policy from the Dutch recession

Teulings C.N., Unemployment and house price crisis: Lessons for fiscal policy from the Dutch recession, IZA Journal of European Labor Studies.2014, 3:20

Article

Sorting and the output loss due to search frictions

Gautier P.A., C.N. Teulings, Sorting and the output loss due to search frictions, vol. 13(6), p. 1136-1166.
Article

Returns to tenure or seniority

Buhai, I.S., M.A. Portela, C.N. Teulings & A. van Vuuren (2013), Returns to tenure or seniority. Econometrica, 82(2), p. 705-730.

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Working paper version of this paper with the full theoretical model

Collective versus decentralized wage bargaining and the efficient allocation of resources

Cai, X., P.A. Gautier, C.N. Teulings & M. Watanabe (2014), Collective versus decentralized wage bargaining and the efficient allocation of resources, Labour, vol.26, p.34-42.

Tenure profiles and efficient separation in a stochastic productivity model

Buhai, I.S., C.N. Teulings, (2013), Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model, Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, vol. 32(2), p. 245-258.

Is economic recovery a myth?

Teulings, C.N. & N. Zubanov (2013), Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses, Journal of Applied Econometrics.

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How to share our risks efficiently?

Teulings, C.N. (2010), How to share our risks efficiently? Principles for optimal social insurance and pension provision, De Economist, vol. 158(1), p 1-21.

Measurement error in education and growth regressions

Portela, M., R.J.M. Alessie & C.N. Teulings (2010), Measurement Error in Education and Growth Regressions, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol.112(3), p. 618-639.

On-the-job search, mismatch and efficiency

Gautier, P.A., C.N. Teulings & A. van Vuuren (2010), On-the-Job Search, Mismatch and Efficiency, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 77(1), p. 245-272.

Marriage and the city: search frictions and sorting of singles

Gautier, P.A., M. Svarer & C.N. Teulings (2010), Marriage and the city: Search frictions and sorting of singles, Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 67(2), p. 206-218.

Sin City? Why is the Divorce Rate Higher in Urban Areas?

Gautier, P.A., M. Svarer & C.N. Teulings (2009), Sin City? Why is the Divorce Rate Higher in Urban Areas?, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 111(3), p. 439-456.

Search and the city

Gautier, P.A. & C.N. Teulings (2009), Search and the city, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), p. 251-265.

Rhineland exit?

Bovenberg, L.A. & C.N. Teulings (2009), Rhineland exit? International Tax and Public Finance, vol. 16(5), p. 710-726.

Education, growth, and income inequality

Teulings, C.N. & T. van Rens (2008), Education, Growth, and Income Inequality, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 90(1), p. 89-104.

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Saving and investing over the life cycle and the role of collective pension funds

Bovenberg, L.A., R. Koijen, T. Nijman & C.N. Teulings (2007), Saving and Investing Over the Life Cycle and the Role of Collective Pension Funds, De Economist, vol. 155(4), p. 347-415.

How large are search frictions?

Gautier, P.A. & C.N. Teulings (2006), How large are search frictions? Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 4(6), p. 1193-1225.

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General accounting, solidarity and pension losses

Teulings, C.N. & C. G. de Vries (2006), General accounting, solidarity and pension losses, De Economist, vol. 154 (1), p. 63-83.

Comparative advantage, relative wages, and the accumulation of human capital

Teulings, C.N. (2005), Comparative advantage, relative wages, and the accumulation of human capital, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 113(2), p. 425-461.

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Should higher education subsidies depend on parental income?

Dur, R., C.N. Teulings & T. van Rens (2004), Should higher education subsidies depend on parental income?, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 20(2), p. 284-297.

The right man for the job

Teulings, C.N. & P.A. Gautier (2004), The right man for the job, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 71(247), p. 553-580.

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Urban versus rural return to human capital in Portugal

Teulings, C.N. & J.A.C. Vieira (2004), Urban versus rural return to human capital in Portugal: a cook-book recipe for applying assignment models, Labour: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, vol. 18(2), p. 265-291.

An empirical measure for labor market density

Teulings, C.N. & P.A. Gautier (2004), An empirical measure for labor market density, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85(4), p. 901-908.

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The contribution of minimum wages to increasing wage inequality

Teulings, C.N. (2003), The contribution of minimum wages to increasing wage inequality, Economic Journal, vol. 113(490), p. 801-833.

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Wages and the bargaining regime in a corporatist setting: the Netherlands

Hartog, J,  E. Leuven, & C.N. Teulings (2002), Wages and the bargaining regime in a corporatist setting: the Netherlands,  European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 18(2), p. 317-331.

Aggregation bias in elasticity’s of substitution and the minimum wage paradox

Teulings, C.N. (2000), Aggregation bias in elasticity’s of substitution and the minimum wage paradox, International Economic Review, vol. 41(2), p. 359-398.

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Labour supply, the natural rate, and the welfare state in the Netherlands

Broersma, L., J. Koeman & C.N. Teulings (2000), Labour supply, the natural rate, and the welfare state in the Netherlands: the wrong institutions at the wrong point in time, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 52(1), p. 96-118.

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Bridging the gap between ‘Joe Sixpack’ and ‘Bill Gates’: on the efficiency of institutions for redistribution

Teulings, C.N. (2000), Bridging the gap between ‘Joe Sixpack’ and ‘Bill Gates’: on the efficiency of institutions for redistribution, De Economist, vol. 148(5), p. 603-624.

A new theory of corporatism and wage setting

Teulings, C.N. (1997), A new theory of corporatism and wage setting, European Economic Review, papers & proceedings, vol. 41(3-5), p. 659-669.

Inter-industry wage differentials and tenure effect in the Netherlands and the US

Hartog, J., R. van Opstal & C.N. Teulings (1997), Inter-industry wage differentials and tenure effect in the Netherlands and the US, De Economist, vol. 145(1), p. 91-99

The economic impact of minimum wages in Europe

Dolado, J., F. Kramarz, S. Machin, A. Manning, D. Margolis, C.N. Teulings, G. Saint Paul  &  M. Keen (1996), The economic impact of minimum wages in Europe, Economic Policy: a European forum, vol. 23, p. 319-372.

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The wage distribution in a model of the assignment of skills to jobs

Teulings, C.N.  (1995), The Wage Distribution in a Model of the Assignment of Skills to Jobs, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 103(2), p. 280-315.

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The diverging effects of the business cycle on the expected duration of job-search

Teulings, C.N. (1993), The Diverging Effects of the Business Cycle on the Expected Duration of Job-Search, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 45(3), p. 482-500.

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An econometric model of crowding out of lower education levels

Teulings, C.N. & M. Koopmanschap (1989), An econometric model of crowding out of lower education levels, European Economic Review, vol. 33 (8), p. 1653-1664.